19 A. India’s Strategic environment Part Three

Continuing the article referred to in the first two units. If in Afghanistan New Delhi finds itself between a rock and a hard place, in Pakistan, the situation is even worse as several doomsday scenarios continue to be speculated upon, with endless variations: from a coup, the collapse of the economy, to nuclear weapons falling into the hands of assorted un-uniformed extremists and fundamentalists. After the fracas over Raymond Davis and the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbotabad and the escalation of drone attacks on terrorist targets in the badlands of Pakistan, Army chief Ashfaq Kayani is having to reassert his authority. There is a churning in the armed forces, and Kayani is using the widespread anti-American sentiment sweeping the streets of Pakistan to take a more belligerent posture against the Americans. Explains a senior diplomat: “Kayani knows the Americans need a denouement before the election schedules. He is playing big stakes poker, staring at the Americans to see who will blink first. He is using the Chinese card.”
A long-time watcher of Pakistan thinks that the Army seems to be toying with the idea of blooding a new civilian dispensation and is veering towards the Imran Khan option. Zardari’s best case scenario would be to try to get a second presidential term and he is working towards that by trying to enhance the PPP strength in the Senate to almost twice its present numbers. His re-election is due in September 2013, and Kayani’s extended term ends two months later — in November that year. The Army distrusts Nawaz Sharif’s PML variant, partly because they are seen as being corrupt but mainly because they feel that Nawaz would want greater control over several policy levers now firmly in the hands of the military and would consequently be less pliable than Imran Khan. The analyses in Pakistani media relating to the playboy cricketer who once got Pakistan the World Cup are distinctly gushy.
In this scenario, says Rana Banerjee, a former Pakistan hand at the Research and Analysis Wing, for Kayani “choreographing an endgame in Pakistan takes priority over creating trouble for India. Anyway, Pakistan’s economic situation is not healthy. India’s option here is to keep a low profile and let the Pakistanis set the pace.” It is not as simple as it sounds, though. A diplomat says as the Army steers a course amidst the ferment, with the Islamists rising against the Establishment, Karachi is in flames and under the effective control of Pakistani Rangers, “If the Army feels the need to demonstrate they are in control, they obviously do it best with respect to India.” The situation is not entirely bleak, however. China and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s two staunchest all-weather friends, cannot step into the breach, financially or otherwise, should the Army test the military and financial relationship with the US beyond a point, and will advise Pakistan, accordingly. China, is after all concerned about a fundamentalist blowback as a result of its ally flirting with fundamentalists of all hues, including Chinese. For the foreseeable future, India will continue its usual tango with Pakistan: one step forwards, two steps backwards, lock, break, cha cha cha. Once it becomes a pattern, it could even be mistaken for a stability of sorts.

Answer the following questions. No cut and paste job please. Let me know whether you have understood the lesson.

24 thoughts on “19 A. India’s Strategic environment Part Three

    1. The implosion type is more difficult to build and more fragile, but is more efficient and is essential to exploit the advantages of fusion.
      The second operational bomb, ‘Fat Man’, dropped on Nagasaki on 9 August, was of the same type as the Gadget. Implosion devices are more efficient than the gun type and do not require high-grade uranium, but they are more complex in their design and more delicate, requiring precise co-ordination of the timing for the detonation of the surrounding explosive charges, and are unsuitable to withstand the stress of being launched from a gun. For this reason, gun-assembly devices retain their importance as nuclear artillery shells, while implosion devices tend to be carried on rockets.

      1. Totally wrong answer. Please rad the note at the beginning and then answer. the question asked. Who ever asked you about implosion and explosion?

        Pakistan is facing trouble from the terrorists within. If hey get hold of the nuclear weapons they will provoke a war with India and Israel and this will lead to he destruction of Pakistan

    2. Pakistan is definitely in a danger of implosion.
      The word “Implosion” means to fall within due to a violent act(s).

      In this case, this refers to the “violent / political activities that could arise within the State of Pakistan itself that could lead itself into a mess. As per the article, the transition period from the establishment of a coup (military dominance) to that of the economy being on a downfall to the extent of the massive outcome of Nuclear Weaponry falling into the wrong hands. Imagine if at all a nuclear warfare broke, the series of impacts that could arise upon the people within the nation and its surrounding neighbors.

      The recent killing of Osama by SEAL of the US at Abbotabad has left the Pakistan Army Chief Kayani speechless, but yet to answer for the happenings that took place so discreetively before the break of dawn. An answer needed/demanded to retain his post. A diabolic situation of the unknown or to frame up some paragraphs atleast through his Anti-US rallies.

      Zardari’s best game of trying to obtain a second presidential term is by seen by his arduous efforts in trying to enhance the PPP strength in the Senate to almost twice its present numbers and by extension of support of his senate would he able to deliver what he decides?? This will be an eye opener.

      The only take of fear that could prevail is another phoenix (Army development like Gen. Musharraf) to intrude in the democracy and create a war like scenario of the given Kayani’s aspirations. It is better that they prevent such a situation and try to recover lost trust to see a better Pakistan rather than another Libyan like episode from within.

    3. Pak Army was built on anti-India-ism, jehadism->led to a safe haven for terrorists->now diff between thoughts and acts of terrorists and Army is decreasing->competition for power between Army, terrorists and feudal-civilian elements->struggle to have a stake in Afghan settlement process->break out of civil war?

      Question for all: What would India do, if a civil war breaks out in Pak? Would Balochistan be the 1971-Part 2?

    1. The US-Pakistan love-hate relationship can be best described as nothing but a marriage of convenience for the Americans to realize their goals in the region.

      firstly the slaying of Osama, a heap of speculative theories continue to crop up to somehow prove Pakistan’s complicity in Osama’s episode forgetting that it was the latter that provided the vital lead that ultimately led the US to Osama’s hideout. The anger over US Drone attacks in Pakistan that continue to add to list of thousands of innocent men, women and children that have been killed and CIA’s Raymond Davis’s wild killings of two Pakistanis in broad day light had not even receded and then stabbing the partner in the back on Osama operation just reveals the worsened relationship manifolds. The CIA’s illegal raid has also brought in open the extent of mistrust in a faulty relationship that was never ever built on solid mutual grounds.

      The sad event wherein the American forces carried out a raid across the borders inside Pakistan, that too an ally in total disregard of its sovereignty is many times serious than even the remote drone attacks. The ensuing reaction of common Pakistanis rapidly lowered what ever little regard they had in their hearts for the fellow Americans, as they try to wriggle out from the gloom inflicted by the latter in total disregard of its sovereignty.

    2. “Where there is love, there is also hate” , as the saying goes, it also prevails in the clashes of words between Pak-US relations too.

      The hatred has been on a wider spread because of the recent US drone attacks (by using unmanned aerial attacks) in Pakistan which arises to around 68 attacks done by the US in fighting the Al-Qaeda. This was termed as a “drone war” as the hunt for Osama became very vibrant. The attacks caused not only the death of a few predicted militants, but the lives of innocent civilians. This is seen as a huge stumbling outcome for the strategy used by the US.

      As per the trial of contractor CIA’s Raymond Davis’s activities, the Punjab provincial Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said he was freed after the families of the slain men decided to accept diyat, or “blood money,” under an Islamic tradition that permits a killer to win a pardon from the heirs of a victim by paying compensation, the families pardoned him and accepted a financial compensation in turn is seen as a baseless, but an action yet to be understood. As per a report from the Los Angeles Times, Davis and U.S. officials have maintained that the CIA contractor and former Special Forces soldier acted in self-defense. Davis says he was in his car in heavy traffic when the two men on a motorcycle approached and attempted to rob him. One of them brandished a handgun, he said. Strange but true.

      Implications are many:
      The killing by the CIA official, using of Drone warfare, impact of SEAL attack in a foreign soil has all perpetrated serious ambiguities’ upon the Govt rulers of Pakistan and hence the Army Chief Kayani’s response to causing a revenge based political comments upon US has led to the bitter relations. What one must note that this is like a flip-flop situation happenig and Pakistan is vying for a chance to respond back. How this will be only time can tell.

    1. Pakistan likes having powerful friends; after the embarrassing May attack that killed OBL, Islamabad began looking to China to take over “sugar-daddy” status from the US. China’s response has been lukewarm, and it took another turn for the worse yesterday.
      An official at China Kingho Group, one of China’s largest private coal miners, said on Thursday it had backed out in August from a $19 billion deal in southern Sindh province because of concerns for its personnel after recent bombings in Pakistan’s major cities.
      This is not the first instance of China spurning Pakistan’s advances. Pakistani officials have lobbied for a formal defense pact with China but Beijing has been entirely silent on the matter. China also agreed to take over the management of the (Chinese-built) Pakistani port of Gwadar in May but have not followed through on that promise. This, and China’s delay in building an important road network that would connect Gwadar with the rest of the country and China, has frustrated Pakistani officials.
      China does seven times more trade with India than it does with Pakistan, and is India’s largest trading partner, even over the US.China is aware that its long-standing strategic partnership with Pakistan would disrupt these strong economic ties in the event of a crisis. For that reason, it will pressurise Pakistan in the medium term to abandon the use of proxies against Indian interests in pakistan.

    2. The killings of Osama bin Laden have left certain implications on the Chinese:
      1. The growing concern of spread of Islamist extremism into the Xinjiang province from Pakistan.
      2. Chinese investments may be destabilized due to the happenings in Pakistan.
      3. The value of Chinese bilateral trade with India is better than with Pakistan.
      4. It may come to be in China’s interests to co-operate, at least to some degree, with the United States in stabilising Pakistan.

      China will back Pakistan in times of trouble. Recently Beijing has switched its focus to highlighting Pakistan’s vital role in countering terrorism and to the supposed American propensity to violate national sovereignty and international law.
      China was not deterred by the terrorist activities affecting India but recently through a news sources it is said that Beijing too has a cause to be worried about whether these elements will target Xinjiang or Chinese citizens in Pakistan.
      Behind all the furious rhetoric that has emerged from Beijing about the international criticism of Pakistan being ‘not only unfair, but also dangerous,’ Beijing faces the same dilemma that it does with respect to North Korea: can’t live with it; can’t abandon it, either.

      Meanwhile, the biggest Chinese concern is actually of the US using bin Laden’s death to hurry its withdrawal from Afghanistan and thus rediscover the energy and resources to target China once again. Even if not directly connected to the bin Laden killing, the third round of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue that started in Beijing soon afterwards was another instance of the many sharp differences and seemingly intractable problems between the two sides.

    1. With refernce to the article , Gen Kayani aiming to the masses that US must pay back for its deeds. It must be noted that the Mlitary has gained the supreme power after the coup invasion.

      Right from 1977 to 1999, and from 1999 onwards the Pakistan army has gained an upper hand. Since then despite the overthrowing of Gem Musharraf, the activities carried out by the army in most of its games proves that the it has a upper niche.

      The common man is subjugated in such a scenario when there is political heavening taking place between the politicians’ and the Army , the stake of survival becomes a foreplay and it also is serving a struggle to overcome such a coup dictated activities causes living a big difficulty

    1. Definitely the army is not happy with the Civilian power in Pakistan. Internationally, President Asif Zardari will continue to be what civilian presidents of Pakistan have always been: a pawn in the hands of the country’s establishment.

      Any country ,be it be US or India will have to face the heat of second and harsh opinions coming its way because of the dominant influence of the Pakistan army into the country’s politics. Pakistan might be playing flip-flops with US as is the same with US doing it back; With India it is always on a downplay with still the resolvement of the Kashmir issue yet to be done, the 26/11 attacks etc are all evidences why India thinks twice before any statements/ actions are taken. Moreover other nations are under the influence of the “sacred approach” because of its heavy influence of Communist nations like China, the concerns that seem to increase further day by day

  1. “Kayani knows the Americans need a denouement before the election schedules. He is playing big stakes poker, staring at the Americans to see who will blink first. He is using the Chinese card.” But how far can the Pakistanis play the China card? Did they do so during the Bangladesh war? Did they succeed?

    1. Wrt to the article that is provided, I feel Pakistan may just say things as such and try to make outright statements. Lets remember if Pakistan tries to play using the Chinese card, it’d really be a difficult zone of survival as it would face criticism and a civil war casued by them would be a huge loss for them especially ans also relatively with other nation. With due respect to Pakistan, what i am trying to imply is that what they did during the Bangladesh crisis ,towards the latter end of the half, India too did support Bangladesh.

      Its not that they’d be suppressed, but the pressure that it’d face would be relatively more. Sanctions would be stopped, massive militanism can arise which could inturn lead to a conjoint effort from US and allies to ravage a war which coiuld lead to a lockdown. So necessarily in my opinion it is just a statement raised due to pressure(s) faced caused by the series of happenings.

      Following Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s declaration of independence in March 1971, India undertook a world-wide campaign to drum up political, democratic and humanitarian support for the people of Bangladesh for their liberation struggle. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi made a whirlwind tour of a large number of countries in a bid to create awareness of the Pakistani atrocities against Bengalis. This effort was to prove vital later during the war, in framing the world’s context of the war and to justify military action by India.[56] Also, following Pakistan’s defeat, it ensured prompt recognition of the newly independent state of Bangladesh.

      Following India’s entry into the war, Pakistan fearing certain defeat, made urgent appeals to the United Nations to intervene and force India to agree to a cease fire. The UN Security Council assembled on 4 December 1971 to discuss the hostilities in South Asia. After lengthy discussions on 7 December, the United States made a resolution for “immediate cease-fire and withdrawal of troops.
      On 12 December, with Pakistan facing imminent defeat, the United States requested that the Security Council be reconvened later leading to the formation of “Bangladesh”.

    1. ” “If the Army feels the need to demonstrate they are in control, they obviously do it best with respect to India.” The situation is not entirely bleak,..

      I agree with this statement because of the following points:

      1. US at this point is preparing for its crucial elections.
      2. Evacuation of troops from Afghanistan, killing of Obama and victories availed at Libya, recent capture of Gadaffi’s son are examples of utmost importance to be cited as achievements of world importance and serves as a ticket for the Statesmen of America to quote during the prepartions for elections. If at all, Pakistan does raise a war, there will unison of choice of people within the US and its allies to counter the “terrorist activites!!” – Advantage US.

      3. China as rightly pointed out by Aneesh would not give into the whims of getting lured to the bosoms of Pakistan’s actions (if it is so), then it’l be a payback time for China as growing concerns of growing concern of spread of Islamist extremism into the Xinjiang province from Pakistan is a huge worry.

      4. The internal decline of inflation, lack of jobs and economic development that could go time leading to a all time low could prevalent and this could lead to an internal revolution from within to counter this activities.

      India is reffered to here, as this Nation will be a victim in the loop forcing to be drawn into a mess that could created leading to severe repurcussions.

    1. China is afraid that the Taliban, Turkestan movement may gain upper hand in Xinjiang. Hence she is carrying on joint anti-terror exercises with SCO members and observers. She is not likely to get deep into the mess between Kayani and US.

      1. I second your thought. Beijing will have to face the same dilemma that it does with respect to North Korea: can’t live with it; can’t abandon it, either.!! So China employs a safe game strategy by not being a ship in troubled waters.

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