Population Dynamics by Navya

Population dynamics

Population dynamics is that branch of life sciences that deals with age and life composition of population. It also seeks to study the factors underlying the changes in population composition. In specific it sheds light on how birth and death rates affect population.

Population problem has become one of the serious problems of India. India is the second largest populated country in the world next to china. According to 2001 census the Population of India is 102.8 crores 7 it has been further increased to 121 crores in 2011. In fact India is having 16.7 5 of the world Population with only 2.4 % of the worlds area. Every 6th person in the world is Indian. At present in India a baby is born in every one and half second, 40 babies per mi9nute, and 55,000 per day. Every year 1.8 crores of Population is added to our total Population which is equal to the total Population of Australia. Between 1999 & 2011 about 18 crore of Population has been increased in India which is equal to the total population of Brazil. India has three and half times more Population than America. If our Population increases at this rate, it would be 135 crores by 2021 & 165 Crores by 2051. Perhaps at that time India would become the first country in the world in Population. We can study the growth of India’s Population through the following table.

India’s Population Growth Since 1901 (in crores)

Census Years	Total Population
1901	23.8
1911	25.2
1921	25.1
1931	27.9
1941	31.9
1951	36.1
1961	43.9
1971	54.8
1981	68.4
1991	84.4
2001	102.8
2011	121

 

From the above table it is clear that India’s Population actually decreased by 1 million between 1911 & 1921, but it increased continuously after 1921. So 1921 is called the “year of great divide”. Further India’s Population increased at a lesser rate up to 1951, but thereafter it increased at a rapid rate. At present India’s population is increasing at an annual rate of 1.6%. But in England it is 0.3 %, in America 0.7%, in France 0.5%, Japan 0.4% & in Germany it is only 0.02%.

Theory of demographic transition

According to the theory of demographic transition, every country passes sthrough demographic transition.

Stage 1; high birth rate and high death rate

Satge2; high birth rate and low death rate

Stage 3; low birth rate and low death rate

India is in the second stage of demographic transition.

Indian broad demographic features;

1. Population growth was negative during 1911-21{minus 0.03}. The influenza epidemic of 1918-19 killed almost 5% of the Indian population.
2. India’s population size was 102 crores in 2001{84.63 crores in 1991, 68.52 crores in 1981census and now 121 crores in 2011 }
3. Population growth rate of India during 2001-2011 was 2.4%per annum. Where as in 1991-2001 was 2.15 per annum and 2.25% per annum during 1971-81.
4. As per the child marriage restraint act 1978, the minimum age of marriage is 21 years for men and 18 years for women.
5. Sex ratio in India has improved in 2011 compared to 2001, 1991, where as the 1991ncensus has worsened as compared to 1981 census.
6. The birth rate is highest in UP and lowest in Sikkim.
7. The death rate is highest in Orissa and lowest in Arunachal Pradesh.
8. The life expectancy is highest in Kerala and lowest in Assam.
9. The literacy rate is highest in Kerala and lowest in Bihar.
   1. The female literacy rate is highest in Kerala and lowest in Rajasthan.
   2. Male literacy rate is highest in Lakshadweep and lowest in Bihar.
   3. In India, percentage of urban population is 31.16% (2011 census)

The family by choice and not by chance is the aim of family planning in India. The first country to adopt the family in the world is India. The important phases of family planning are listed below.

1. During 1950’s India adopted clinical approach, where the emphasis was on research and setting up central and state level organizations.
2. During 1960’s clinical approach was supplemented by extension approach.
3. Fully fledged department of family planning was created in 1966.
4. Cafeteria approach was followed wherein the acceptors had the freedom to adopt any of the contraceptive methods offered.
5. In 1966-69 family planning programme was made target oriented.
6. New population policy, announced in 1976 (V Plan) which sought to integrate family planning with health, maternity and child health care and nutrition services.

 

Composition of India’s Population

Age Composition

The study of age composition is helpful in determining the proportion of the labour force in the total population. The age composition of population at any time is the result of past trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

Percentage distribution of India’s population by age groups

Year	Age Group		60 and above
	0-14	15-60
1911	38.8	60.2	1.0
1921	39.2	59.6	1.2
1931	38.3	60.2	1.5
1951	37.4	57.1	5.5
1961	41.0	53.3	5.7
1971	41.4	53.4	5.2
1991	36.5	57.1	6.4
2001	37.3	55.4	7.3
2011

Thus three important points can be noted in regard to the age composition of India’s population .They are,

1. India is a young nation in the literal sense of the term. More than half of the Indian population consists of young people.
2. The age distribution indicates that every one person, on an average, has to earn for him and for one dependent also. This is because the dependency ratio is high in India.
3. With the fall in the birth rate, the age structure of population is likely to change. That is, 1. Dependency ratio is likely to decrease. 2, the proportion of the working population is likely to increase

Life expectancy

Life expectancy or expectation of life refers to the average life of the inhabitants of a nation .In other words, the number of years for which people of a country expect to live at the time of birth is the average life expectancy of that country.

Life expectancy at birth in India in years

	1951	1981-85	1989-93	2002-06	2011-16
Male	37.2	55.4	59.4	62.6	62.2
Female	36.2	55.7	59.0	64.2	70.8
Overall	36.7	55.4	59.7	63.5	66.5

 

Crude Birth and Death Rates

Birth rate and death rate have been considered as the two important demographic statistics on which the rate of growth of population of a country depends. Crude birth rate refers to the number of births per 1000 population during a year and crude death rate refers to the number of deaths per 1000 population during a year. The difference between the birth rate and death rate measures the growth rate of population.

The following table illustrates the crude birth and death rates since 1951.

Year	Crude Birth rate (per 1000 population)	Crude Death rate (per 1000 population)
1951	40.8	25.1
1981	33.9	12.5
1991	29.5	9.8
2001	25.4	8.4
2010	22.1	7.2

Infant Mortality Rate

Infant mortality rate refers to the number of children dying before they reach their first birthday per 1000 children born during a year. The infant mortality rate in India is calculated as a ratio of the number of deaths among the 1000 born children before they reach their first birthday.

The infant mortality rate in India was as high as 204 at the beginning of the 20^th century. But there has been a marked fall in this rate during the last eleven decades. Presently it is at forty seven per 1000 children born in 2011. The following table illustrates the infant mortality rate in India since 1951.

 

Infant Mortality Rate in India

Year	1951-61	1981	1991	2010
Infant Mortality Rate	146	110	80	47

 

Indian Population at a Glance

Indicators	1991	2001	2011
Birth Rate/Thousand	29.5	25.4	22.1
Death Rate/Thousand	9.8	8.4	7.2
Population	84.4 Crore	102.8 Crore	121 Crore
Sex Ratio	927/thousand males	933/thousand males	940/thousand males
Rural Population	74.3 %	72.2 %	67.74 %
Urban Population	25.7 %	27.8 %	31.16 %
Literacy Rate	52.21 %	64.84 %	74.40 %
Male Literacy Rate	64.13 %	75.26 %	82.00 %
Female Literacy Rate	39.29 %	53.67 %	65.25 %

 

Source;

1. 1.   Census of India 2011
2. 2.   Economic survey –various numbers, census 2011
3. 3.   Misra and puri-“Indian Economy”
4. 4.   S.R. Keshava-“ Economics”
5. 5.   A.N.Agarwal;- “Economics of development and planning”
6. 6.   Krishnamurthy hosabeedu; “Economic development of India”